Stern Talking
Lord Nicolas Stern, the economist who, for the last Labour government, quantified the cost of addressing climate change, has written a new book "Why Are We Waiting?". A group of WBGE members went to Oxford on 19th October to hear him speak about the book and his current thinking on climate change, an event co-hosted by the Oxford Martin School and Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI). His conclusion nine years ago was that we could achieve the changes required if we allocated 1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to it, whereas it would cost us between 5% and 20% for ever if we didn't. Of course that hasn't happened and now the sum required per year is substantially higher.
Lord Stern is still optimistic but you sensed that that is because to be anything else is to court failure. The prospect of a global transition to a low carbon economy was “exciting and attractive”. He said the requirement is to reach net zero carbon emissions in the second half of the 21st century which represented a huge change, but humanity should not shy away from the challenge. Arguing that major gains could come from progress in city planning, technology and clean energy systems, he said the transformation in the global economy over the next two decades would present significant opportunities. But he added: “If we delay and mess around with indecision, then we will surely take it beyond the point where we can hold temperatures to two degrees.”
His talk was structured to cover the science and the urgency of action, the attractiveness of moving to a low-carbon economy, the policies required by government, the ethics of making the change, the psychology and politics behind the reluctance to change and a note on the Paris talks. He began his talk by saying that the science is robust and that the two defining challenges of the 21st century are managing climate change and overcoming poverty. He explained that they go hand-in-hand. If we fail on one we fail on the other. CO2e concentrations are now around 450ppm with a strong possibility of increasing to over 750PPM by the end of the century, with a global temperature increase of over 4oC or even 5oC, if we take no action. The risks are unprecedented for humankind. World emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will need to be cut by a factor of 2.5 by 2050 but if this is accompanied by a 3% increase in output, (equating to output trebling by 2050), then emissions need to be cut by a factor of 7 or 8. [Note that an 80% reduction by 2050 is a factor of only 5].
He said humanity’s failure to address climate change effectively is “the greatest market failure”, in six ways:
Lord Stern is still optimistic but you sensed that that is because to be anything else is to court failure. The prospect of a global transition to a low carbon economy was “exciting and attractive”. He said the requirement is to reach net zero carbon emissions in the second half of the 21st century which represented a huge change, but humanity should not shy away from the challenge. Arguing that major gains could come from progress in city planning, technology and clean energy systems, he said the transformation in the global economy over the next two decades would present significant opportunities. But he added: “If we delay and mess around with indecision, then we will surely take it beyond the point where we can hold temperatures to two degrees.”
His talk was structured to cover the science and the urgency of action, the attractiveness of moving to a low-carbon economy, the policies required by government, the ethics of making the change, the psychology and politics behind the reluctance to change and a note on the Paris talks. He began his talk by saying that the science is robust and that the two defining challenges of the 21st century are managing climate change and overcoming poverty. He explained that they go hand-in-hand. If we fail on one we fail on the other. CO2e concentrations are now around 450ppm with a strong possibility of increasing to over 750PPM by the end of the century, with a global temperature increase of over 4oC or even 5oC, if we take no action. The risks are unprecedented for humankind. World emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will need to be cut by a factor of 2.5 by 2050 but if this is accompanied by a 3% increase in output, (equating to output trebling by 2050), then emissions need to be cut by a factor of 7 or 8. [Note that an 80% reduction by 2050 is a factor of only 5].
He said humanity’s failure to address climate change effectively is “the greatest market failure”, in six ways:
- The dumping of greenhouse gases is not factored into costs of production. We need e.g. carbon taxes / cap-and-trade / regulation;
- RD&D is not allowed for in pricing: e.g. tax breaks, feed-in tariffs (FIT) for deployment;
- The cost of capital is fundamental and needs to be reduced but there is imperfection in risk/capital markets: e.g. risk sharing/reduction through guarantees, equity, green investment banks.
- Networks are required: e.g. electric grids, transport, broadband, community-based insulation schemes;
- Information needs to be better: e.g. “labelling” requirements on products more generally. Awareness of options for production and consumption;
- Co-benefits need to be recognised: e.g. local and regional air pollution from burning hydrocarbons very damaging, valuing ecosystems and biodiversity, valuing energy security.
Moving on through the ethics of action and inaction he said that there is reluctance to incur definite costs in return for an uncertain future benefit. Furthermore there are powerful vested interests in maintaining the status quo. On the psychology required to persuade people of the need for action he said that much depends on leadership and language.
Finally to Paris... He was much more optimistic about Paris than Copenhagen (a “shambles”) and he set out various comparisons which made Paris much more likely to succeed. Not least was a change in the attitude of the Chinese and the Americans since Copenhagen.
A video of Lord Stern's talk and the slides he would have like to have used (projection isn't permitted in the Sheldonian theatre) can be found at http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/event/2187.
Writing this after the awful terrorist events in Paris I wonder whether the Paris event will go ahead in Paris on time. I am sure it will happen somewhere sometime but I would not be surprised if it is not Paris in December. Nevertheless, it is really important that all of us who understand the climate change science and see the need for action, make a statement to our government, and the best way to do this is to take part in the march on 29th November or, failing that, the one on the preceding day in Reading. I hope to see you then.
Richard Foster
Resources
| wbge_tri-fold_v2.pdf |
| switch_off_poster_with_margins.doc |
Big Lunch - Guide to Community Engagement
Big Lunch - Guide to Community Funding
Big Lunch - Guide to Community Energy
Big Lunch - Guide to Community Food Projects
Other Big Lunch Guides
Media Resources
Radio Programmes
Costing the earth - Radio4 FM Wednesdays 21:00 repeated Tuesdays 15:30
Shared Planet - Radio4FM Tuesdays 11:00 repeated Mondays 21:00
Agree to Differ (programme on fracking) listen online only
Shared Planet - Radio4FM Tuesdays 11:00 repeated Mondays 21:00
Agree to Differ (programme on fracking) listen online only
Online learning modules
Future Lean- Free learning modules created by UK Universities
Open Learn- Free learning modules from the Open University
Open Learn- Free learning modules from the Open University
The Housing Assessment Tool for community groups
CSE has developed the Housing Assessment Tool (HAT), a programme that runs in Excel 2007 and gives a rough assessment of a house’s energy efficiency level.
Based on CSE’s Housing Assessment Model, HAT is designed to enable community groups to analyse data about their local housing stock and produce individual energy saving reports for householders.
An automatic mail merge function can be used to generate a householder report, including the option to tailor the text to make it more relevant to the local area. HAT even generates an estimated SAP rating for the properties being analysed.
Based on CSE’s Housing Assessment Model, HAT is designed to enable community groups to analyse data about their local housing stock and produce individual energy saving reports for householders.
An automatic mail merge function can be used to generate a householder report, including the option to tailor the text to make it more relevant to the local area. HAT even generates an estimated SAP rating for the properties being analysed.
New toolkit to help local communities get the most out of the Green Deal
The team at CSE has been working hard to update our PlanLoCaL resource for the launch of the Green Deal.
We want to see community groups taking the lead in promoting the Green Deal within their own neighbourhoods, enabling people to access loans for energy efficiency improvements, reducing carbon emissions and improving quality of life in their own neighbourhoods. So, we've launched a whole new PlanLoCaL resource pack and have overhauled the website to bring it all together.
We want to see community groups taking the lead in promoting the Green Deal within their own neighbourhoods, enabling people to access loans for energy efficiency improvements, reducing carbon emissions and improving quality of life in their own neighbourhoods. So, we've launched a whole new PlanLoCaL resource pack and have overhauled the website to bring it all together.
